Task: Try testing someone's sense of randomness. Offer them a little bet.
You will toss a coin say 20 times, and if in that run it turns up tails four times in a row, you win. If not, they do.
...
...
Here's what I threw:
H T H H H H H H T H H T T H H T H H H T
As you can see, I got six heads in a row, two more than the wager required.
Here's what I found in the 'answer' section:
When it comes to runs of heads or tails, they are far more likely than we think... no more unlikely than not getting (them)... we seem to have a programmed-in tendency to see patterns in nature, even if there aren't any...
It is part of the human quest for meaning and purpose, our way to structure a universe that may well reflect the dance of energy, the play of randomness in the meaningless noise...
If you can get anyone to accept your wager, you should make a tidy profit 'in the long run'.
If you can get anyone to accept your wager, you should make a tidy profit 'in the long run'.
This reminds me of the tendency to see shapes in clouds that aren't really there. And how gossip and rumor go 'viral', to use a contemporary word.
This report about how "Smart phones foster dumb habits among pedestrians" may highlight a related phenomenon:
No comments:
Post a Comment